Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram with Age and Laboratory Findings for Severe COVID-19 in Hunan Province, China.

Purpose: To identify more objectively predictive factors of severe outcome among patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort of 479 hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Hunan Province was selected. The prognostic effects of factors such as age and laboratory indicators were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. A prognostic nomogram model was established to predict the progression of patients with COVID-19. Results: A total of 524 patients in Hunan province with COVID-19 from December 2019 to October 2020 were retrospectively recruited. Among them, 479 eligible patients were randomly assigned into the training cohort (n = 383) and validation cohort (n = 96), at a ratio of 8:2. Sixty-eight (17.8%) and 15 (15.6%) patients developed severe COVID-19 after admission in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. The differences in baseline characteristics were not statistically significant between the two cohorts with regard to age, sex, and comorbidities (P > 0.05). Multivariable analyses included age, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, lactic dehydrogenase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, urea, albumin-to-globulin ratio, and eosinophil count as predictive factors for patients with progression to severe COVID-19. A nomogram was constructed with sufficient discriminatory power (C index = 0.81), and proper consistency between the prediction and observation, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.81 and 0.86 in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Conclusion: We proposed a simple nomogram for early detection of patients with non-severe COVID-19 but at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19, which could help optimize clinical care and personalized decision-making therapies.

A small molecule compound berberine as an orally active therapeutic candidate against COVID-19 and SARS: A computational and mechanistic study.

The novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has grown into a global pandemic and a major public health threat since its breakout in December 2019. To date, no specific therapeutic drug or vaccine for treating COVID-19 and SARS has been FDA approved. Previous studies suggest that berberine, an isoquinoline alkaloid, has shown various biological activities that may help against COVID-19 and SARS, including antiviral, anti-allergy and inflammation, hepatoprotection against drug- and infection-induced liver injury, as well as reducing oxidative stress. In particular, berberine has a wide range of antiviral activities such as anti-influenza, anti-hepatitis C, anti-cytomegalovirus, and anti-alphavirus. As an ingredient recommended in guidelines issued by the China National Health Commission for COVID-19 to be combined with other therapy, berberine is a promising orally administered therapeutic candidate against SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. The current study comprehensively evaluates the potential therapeutic mechanisms of berberine in preventing and treating COVID-19 and SARS using computational modeling, including target mining, gene ontology enrichment, pathway analyses, protein-protein interaction analysis, and in silico molecular docking. An orally available immunotherapeutic-berberine nanomedicine, named NIT-X, has been developed by our group and has shown significantly increased oral bioavailability of berberine, increased IFN-γ production by CD8+ T cells, and inhibition of mast cell histamine release in vivo, suggesting a protective immune response. We further validated the inhibition of replication of SARS-CoV-2 in lung epithelial cells line in vitro (Calu3 cells) by berberine. Moreover, the expression of targets including ACE2, TMPRSS2, IL-1α, IL-8, IL-6, and CCL-2 in SARS-CoV-2 infected Calu3 cells were significantly suppressed by NIT-X. By supporting protective immunity while inhibiting pro-inflammatory cytokines; inhibiting viral infection and replication; inducing apoptosis; and protecting against tissue damage, berberine is a promising candidate in preventing and treating COVID-19 and SARS. Given the high oral bioavailability and safety of berberine nanomedicine, the current study may lead to the development of berberine as an orally, active therapeutic against COVID-19 and SARS.

Risk of Metformin in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes With COVID-19: A Preliminary Retrospective Report.

The current outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has spread across the world. No specific antiviral agents have been adequately evidenced for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Although metformin has been recommended as a host-directed therapy for COVID-19, there are some opposite views. The effects of metformin on the disease severity of patients with COVID-19 with diabetes during hospitalization remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the effect of metformin on disease severity. We enrolled 110 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 with diabetes prescribed either metformin or non-metformin hypoglycemic treatment for a case-control study. The primary outcome was the occurrence of life-threatening complications. There were no differences between the two groups in age, sex, comorbidities, and clinical severity at admission. Blood glucose and lactate dehydrogenase levels of the metformin group were higher than those of the non-metformin group at admission. Other laboratory parameters at admission and treatments after admission were not different between the two groups. Strikingly, the percentage of patients who experienced life-threatening complications was significantly higher in the metformin group (28.6% (16/56) vs. 7.4% (4/54), P = 0.004). Antidiabetic therapy with metformin was associated with a higher risk of disease progression in patients with COVID-19 with diabetes during hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio = 3.964, 95% confidence interval 1.034-15.194, P = 0.045). This retrospective analysis suggested a potential safety signal for metformin, the use of which was associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19. We propose that metformin withdrawal in patients with COVID-19 be considered to prevent disease progression.